Original Pjtime Projection Era, published in Tianjin at 13:00 on December 28, 2023

    At present, the basic pattern of the projection industry's main application areas, including business education, home use, and engineering markets, has undergone significant changes. Among them, the business education market with a large proportion of market shrinkage and the home use market with emerging brand growth protagonists are facing an almost absolute "participant surplus" state. In addition, the growth rate of engineering projection demand may also decrease, bringing more pressure to the competition in the engineering market.

    In the absence of incremental dividends, the projection industry will inevitably enter a stock dominated structural adjustment stage in 2024, which will make brand competition more competitive. Even for some second - and third tier brands, some niche areas are facing the challenge of "survival".

    This stage of industry development determines that 2024 will inevitably be a crucial year for projection industry enterprises to "exhaust their resources" and achieve market defense through innovative supply. It is expected that the business education market will continue to attack on intelligence, new light sources, and low costs, while the household market will continue to sprint in terms of quality to price ratio. The competition between domestic and foreign brands in the engineering market will also continue to intensify

At present, there are two main "new" directions in the domestic projector new light valve industry chain: LCOS and MICRO LED. Among them, LCOS does not have technical barriers to product implementation, and the key to achieving national independent breakthroughs is to obtain support from "end brands". Micro LED is in a critical period of new technology system research and development, with technological breakthroughs being the main obstacle. However, it has already been supported by the brand Changhong.

So, whether there will be breakthrough achievements in new light valves with local technology in 2024, and even the prediction of terminal product launch, is in a subtle state:

Firstly, from the perspective of LCOS technology, it is not new. This is an old technology with a history of more than 20 years, and it is also a technology that local enterprises have broken through for at least 5-7 years—— If there is sufficient terminal brand support, terminal products could have been launched at least 5 years ago.

The main difficulty of the local LCOS projection valve industry without the emergence of terminals largely comes from the watchful eye of the existing supply chain. It is difficult for industry participants to make the choice of abandoning the existing stable supply chain and the new local supply chain. Moreover, LCOS optical valves may not necessarily provide broader growth opportunities for local enterprises than DLP and 3LCD.

However, this situation will change in 2024- this change will start with the 1LCD projection camp. The likelihood of intelligent projection consumption continuing to compete within the "stock" framework in 2024. The competitive overlap area between technology lines including DLP and 3LCD and 1LCD will only expand, not shrink. The efforts of LCD exclusive brands to continue upgrading their product quality will also encounter more limitations in the level of light valves.

If a 1LCD projection enterprise launches a local 3LCOS optical valve projection product, it will completely break its "upward" and "quality" bottleneck on the supply line. Meanwhile, 3LCOS has almost no direct competitive relationship with 1LCD, and a large part of 1LCD enterprises are also largely unaffected by the international supply chain of DLP and 3LCD light valves.

Or, in other words, under the competition for stock, the ambitious LCD brand that cannot be supported by other light valve resources may successfully bring "terminal brand support" to LCOS local light valves.

Secondly, the application of Micro LED new system projection technology in the automotive market continues to advance. In 2023, an integration volume of 160000 pixels has been achieved. However, achieving projection display applications requires a pixel integration level of 1-2 million orders of magnitude (even using RGB three film imaging) - approximately a "zero" gap.

In this context, how much progress micro LED can make in technology has become the core of industry attention. However, considering that in the past five years, the integration of micro LED projection light valves has increased from over 10000 pixels to 160000 pixels, achieving a "tenfold increase" in one go; At the same time, high pixel integration technology has also been validated and commercialized in the application of AR technology on micro LEDs; With the maturity of its technology increasing, another 10 fold leap is an expected goal.

The in car headlights have verified the brightness performance of micro LED projection, and AR has verified the pixel integration scale with micro LED. If the two are combined, a breakthrough in the new system of micro LED projection can be achieved. From this point of view, there is a technology that can be followed for micro LED projection

2023 is a year of large-scale price decline for laser projectors. The minimum price of three color laser products has exceeded 3500 yuan, and the price of single color laser products has exceeded 3000 yuan. The price overlap area between laser projection and LED projection in the mid to high end has unprecedentedly increased. Against this backdrop, people are filled with expectations for further price reductions in laser displays in 2024.

Among them, the expectation of a decrease in the price of mixed light products is of utmost importance. Because, based on the market situation in 2023, both Dangbei and Jimi's hybrid intelligent projection are in the "quasi ten thousand yuan" range. This positioning certainly highlights the high-end, but it really lacks the driving force of sales. Especially with the opening of the pure tricolor laser market below 5000 yuan, there will inevitably be a competition between mixed and pure tricolor lasers in terms of sales and popularity.

That is to say, after experiencing a "verbal battle" in 2023, further "supply line collisions" are inevitable between hybrid light systems such as Jimi, Dangbei, and Guangfeng, as well as pure tricolor laser systems represented by Nut and Hisense. The so-called supply line collisions inevitably include "you have prices and segmented positioning products, I also need them"!

Industry experts point out that the prerequisite for any new technology to ultimately win is a certain degree of popularization. Although it is possible to give up on the lowest end market, it is still necessary to strive for the middle mainstream market. The probability of a 4000 yuan level mixed light projector appearing in 2024 is extremely high. Further layout and supplementation of the mixed light product line is also a necessary requirement for the mixed light camp to transform from a "technical concept" to a "product landing".

Or rather, without pure tricolor lasers leading the way in price reduction, hybrid products also need to enter the mid-range market. The further price decline of pure tricolor lasers in 2023 will double the pressure on the popularization of mixed light products and accelerate the process.

At the same time, the industry expects new projection brands that support mixed light technology to emerge in 2024. Especially with the existing technology solutions of Guangfeng and Shimeile, there is no need for new technological research and development investment, and it can quickly introduce "new technology lines". At present, not every brand in the intelligent projection market emphasizes independent research and development in the light source end, and imports more technology lines through upstream cooperation, which is in line with the interests of second and third tier brands:

Because in 2024, the home investment industry is still in a stock dispute; At the same time, the market share of intelligent projection with a price of over 5000 yuan has increased to about 10% in 2023, almost doubling its development. This requires brands to choose to seize the high-end market or use more advanced technology configurations to seize the mid-range market. These two points are important choices for second and third tier brands to upgrade their survival ability in the era of internal competition in stock. The accelerated layout of mixed light technology by second and third tier brands is expected to become an important breakthrough point for their product prices to rise online and performance to fall offline.

That is, there are many factors that support the emergence of lower prices for mixed light projection in 2024. This also makes the low price of mixed lighting almost a consensus that can be described as a "fact". Therefore, I believe that pure tricolor lasers and LED light sources are also making their own preparations.

If we analyze the adjustment of technological layout from the price range, the 2024 price range of 3000 yuan and the price range of 5000+are two important "dividing lines":

Firstly, it is predicted that there will be two changes in the 5000+price range market. One is the downward trend of hybrid technology mentioned earlier, and the other is that the market above 5000 yuan will generally be fully occupied by hybrid and tricolor lasers. According to statistical data, in the 2023 Double Eleven market, three colors and mixed light have accounted for more than 60% of the laser intelligent projection sector; Laser products have also achieved an absolute advantage in the proportion of intelligent projections priced above 6000 yuan.

Secondly, the market competition for the 3000 yuan gear is intensifying. The main changes in 2023 will come from the attack of 1LCD, including higher brightness 1LCD products and 4K 1LCD products, with the overall layout centered around the 3000 yuan price range. In addition, 3LCD laser and pure tricolor laser intelligent projection products have also been deployed in the 3000+gear market.

The "optional technology difference products" priced between 2000 and 4000 yuan are the most abundant. This has made the competition in this area unprecedentedly fierce. Brands must come up with more performance goods in order to play well. It is expected that in this period of 2024, the price of products with the same brightness may decrease by 20%, or more new technological elements will be introduced at the same price point, such as tricolor laser, 3LCD three piece light valve, 4K standard, ultra short focus, etc.

Thirdly, the LED projection product line is facing "overall" pressure. The price of mixed light and pure tricolor lasers has decreased, increasing the price pressure on monochromatic laser projection. These monochromatic laser products often focus on new technological concepts or high brightness, further transmitting pressure to traditional LED projection products. Especially, if the 5000+market is dominated by mixed light lasers and pure tricolor lasers, then traditional monochrome laser high brightness models and LED high brightness models will inevitably have a "bloody battle" between 3000 and 5000 yuan.

In this context, is it necessary for LED light sources, which still play the role of a high-volume player in the industry, to further leverage their cost advantage, at least at present, in order to find a new rhythm in the price reduction of high brightness products? We can look forward to this at least in 2024.

In short, in 2024, industry enterprises may launch a "performance war" on many price lines. This is good news for consumers, as well as for further driving and tapping into the potential of the intelligent projection market.

The systematic shrinkage of the commercial and educational projector market has been going on for some time: in terms of domestic consumption, 2018 was the starting point of the decline in demand for educational projectors, and 2020 was the starting point of the decline in demand for commercial projectors. In terms of the global consumer market, the overseas market of business and education will enter a "contraction cycle" in 2022.

The micro core factor of the business education market lies in "competition among competitors". The replacement of traditional projector multimedia in classrooms and corporate meetings by LCD interactive tablets, LCD blackboards, and LCD conference screens. Especially since 2022, the global market demand has shrunk, accompanied by the comprehensive price decline of large-sized LCD and the accelerated expansion of interactive tablet categories.

Taking the domestic market as an example, the demand for educational projection products will decrease by about 40% from 2022 to 2023, while the demand for business projection conferences will decrease by about 50%. Among them, in the second half of 2023, there has been a divergence in demand between the education market and the business market: the decline in education projection has narrowed significantly, while the decline in demand for business projection is still within a 20% range. The factor leading to this core change is that the main substitutes for educational projection are interactive LCD products; Alternative options for conference projection include interactive LCD tablets and non interactive regular LCD conference tablets.

However, some industry insiders point out that in terms of absolute market sales volume, after experiencing the peak market contraction in the first half of 2022, the decline in demand for commercial and educational projection has gradually narrowed. Especially considering the relatively small stock market of commercial education projection, accelerated supply side innovation of commercial education projection products, and the fact that commercial education projection still has irreplaceable special advantages in display technology, it can be boldly predicted that in 2024, the education projection market will take the lead in stabilizing in the domestic market, and there may even be a partial rebound under innovations such as laser projection blackboards; Meanwhile, the declining demand for business projection may also reach its bottom in the second half of 2024.

"The unique value market is the foundation market for business education projection!" Research suggests that as the demand range that overlaps with LCD screens gradually disappears, business education projection is finding its own "new positioning". Especially in the business market, projectors are accelerating their evolution in new light sources, ultra short focus, portable applications, and intelligence. Compared to the market situation before this round of shrinking demand, a new supply pattern has been formed, which is conducive to stabilizing the market in the "characteristic demand range".

However, compared to the earlier entry into the competition adjustment cycle of the domestic commercial education projection market, the proportion of commercial education in the global projection consumer market is still considerable, the competition overlap between commercial education and LCD tablets is still relatively high, and the market low point has not yet entered the visible range. From the perspective of global demand, the situation of business education projection is likely to remain unfavorable in 2024, especially in the context of the LCD display industry's plan to expand the market for large-sized products, and the supply chain for sizes over 80+in 2024 will continue to grow significantly. The downward trend of the global business education projection market is still in a state of significant opening.

Of course, stabilizing the domestic business education market is good news for national projection brands. This represents that ethnic projection enterprises may be the first to seize the pace of market transformation, forming a "supply side innovation lead" compared to the global market. This will be conducive to the layout of the local business education projection industry chain in overseas markets: even the launch of a new collaborative supply line for left-handed LCD screens and right-handed innovative business education projection.

The general trend of the engineering projector market in 2023 is "a bit unexpected": at the beginning of the year, the market has predicted that in the post COVID-19 era, the cultural tourism will brush a wave of "increment" after the control and prevention are released. However, the incremental growth in 2023 was not "comfortable" to eat:

Because 2023 is considered the year with the most intense competition between domestic and foreign engineering projection brands. On the one hand, the "first mover time dividend" of domestic brands leading the introduction of new technologies such as lasers has been exhausted. On the other hand, foreign brands have shown unprecedented attention to the Chinese market and are beginning to lay out more "popular products".

In 2023, both the market below 10000 lumens and the market between 10000 lumens and 20000 lumens, engineering projector brands have launched a product layout that can be described as a "tit for tat". For example, Barco, which emphasizes localization strategy, and Guangfeng, a representative of local brands, have basically systematically achieved iterative updates of mainstream sales models with a "full flow bright line". Brands such as Keshi, NEC, Shimeile, Panasonic, Ricoh, Epson, and Lixun have also joined in this confrontation.

"The confrontation in 2023 will mainly be at the level of 'supply side layout', but these new layouts will inevitably be fully implemented in 2024- this will be a key year for the upgrading of domestic and foreign confrontation. Industry insiders point out that, except for a few foreign brands that insist on withdrawing their main product lines towards mid to high end demand, the strength of foreign brands in the 'engineering' projection market will continue in 2024, and it is likely to be an enhanced version of 2023.". In the popular market, the innovation and price differences between foreign and local brands may further narrow.

Against the backdrop of a decline in domestic demand for engineering projectors and the loss of post pandemic benefits in 2024, as well as challenges from LED direct display large screen competitors in some engineering projection demand markets, a "relative oversupply" situation of 5000 to 20000 lumens will be formed. It is expected that the internal competition of the domestic engineering projection market will inevitably reach another level in 2024.

Especially in 2023, the Taiwan based camp, which acted later than the European, American, and Japanese counterparts in the engineering market, is highly likely to increase its market filling efforts in 2024. Because in the Taiwan based engineering camp between local brands, Europe, America, and Japan, if we do not increase our participation in the war, it is likely that our survival space will be further squeezed by local brands and Europe, America, and Japan. In the context of a relatively surplus supply side in the market, the competition in the Taiwan based engineering projection camp in 2024 has a bit of a survival battle.

However, the battlefield is always two-way. When foreign brands are sinking and launching an attack on the engineering projection market towards local brands, local brands are also breaking through. For example, in the first three quarters of 2023, Guangfeng Technology actively expanded its laser product line to the high-end market, with a contribution rate of 24% above 10000 lumens. Local brands are replicating the successful experience of previous popular markets in the high-end engineering market.

The basic pattern of local and foreign brands in the domestic engineering projection industry is the mutual entry of advantageous markets. It is precisely because local brands are becoming increasingly high-end that they have brought more competitive pressure to foreign projection brands, forcing them to increase their efforts in expanding into lower tier markets.

However, unlike the rise of local brands in the domestic market, foreign brands in the international market still firmly grasp the initiative by relying on advantages such as upstream supply chains and downstream channel systems. Using global advantages to suppress local brands in the domestic market is currently the main strategy of foreign projection giants in the engineering market. This brings considerable pressure to local brands.

In summary, the local engineering projection market is recognized as the world's largest demand and largest growth market. Foreign giants will not easily give up in this market, and local brands must win. This hardcore confrontation in 2024 will only be more exciting.

In 2023, the first year after the COVID-19, the engineering projection industry will feel "insufficient" for the demand of "cultural tourism". There are two reasons: firstly, in the first year of recovery, it was deeply affected by the global macroeconomic downturn, and cultural tourism was in a stage of "poverty alleviation"+"investment entities recovering from the epidemic losses". The second is the intensification of competition among competitors.

According to statistical data, the development of LED direct display products will enter a new period of "price decline and quantity increase" in 2023. It is expected that the shipment area of small pitch LED will increase by about 20% throughout the year, although it is not as high as the high-speed growth before 2020, it still maintains the moderate development speed from 2021 to 2022. However, the sales growth of the small pitch LED market has almost stagnated throughout the year, and although some companies raised prices in the second quarter, it still remains at the bottom of the price decline cycle throughout the year.

Especially, the average price of small pitch LEDs using COB technology decreased by more than 30% in the first three quarters of 2023, and the market growth doubled throughout the year. Another growth hotspot is the relatively cheaper products in the P2.5-1.7 spacing range, with a shipment area accounting for 70% of small spacing LEDs and an increase of about 15%.

Looking at different industries, it is undoubtedly the "cultural and tourism" related industries that will experience a qualitative change in the application of small pitch LED in 2023. According to data from Lotu Technology, the market share of information publishing application scenarios in the third quarter of 2023, as the highest demand point for the year, increased by 8.2 percentage points compared to the second quarter, rising to 42.8%. It is mainly used for displaying educational school history, government party history, and other aspects. It can be seen that the overlap and competition with the display requirements of traditional engineering projection applications are intensifying.

The main factors driving the intensification of competition in LED display and engineering projection include: 1. There is still a high demand for simple flat or curved fixed displays, which occupy a major part in many projects; 2. The picture quality and brightness effect of small pitch LEDs are better; 3. The supply of small pitch LEDs has increased significantly, and the price of mid to high end products has been significantly reduced through collaboration - a 50% price drop over three years, resulting in a significant improvement in cost-effectiveness.

For the industry in 2024, it is widely believed that small pitch LEDs will still be on the path of "price decline and demand expansion". Among them, micro LED technology is likely to explode with the help of MIP packaging. The latter can provide better cost economy for small pitch LEDs. At the same time, the domestic consumption development of the cultural and tourism industry will also enter a normal state in 2024. After the epidemic, the demand for retaliatory travel will decrease, market competition will intensify, and the factors of industry entities investing cautiously due to the epidemic will decrease. The combination of two aspects is likely to further benefit the development of LED displays, including small pitch LEDs, in the cultural and tourism market.

Therefore, it can be expected that the competition between engineering projection and LED direct display in the cultural and tourism market will inevitably intensify in 2024. This may lead to the formation of a new round of price decline in the engineering projection industry. Industry analysis suggests that compared to LED direct displays, the competitive advantage of engineering projectors lies not only in the performance differences such as point display, non-destructive projection of objects (i.e. display surfaces), high variability, and flexible display design, but also in the economic viability of unit display area, which is a significant and must be pursued value point.

In 2024, more and cheaper medium brightness engineering projectors may flock to the cultural tourism, exhibition and other markets. This will be one of the key battles in the direct confrontation between engineering projection and LED direct display, especially small pitch LED.

The unexpected technological surprise in the projector market in 2023 came from Nut's 0.18:1 ultra short focus - breaking the limit of focal length and maintaining "price economy": a three color laser light source and an O2 Ultra 4K with 2600 CVIA lumens priced at 9999 yuan. This is also the Epson 2022 4K laser TV LS800, which adopts a 0.16:1 ultra short focus design and is another ultra short focus product below 0.2:1.

Will the ultra short focus projection that breaks through its limits in 2024 still have one model per year? From the current competition between laser TVs and ultra short focus applications, the probability of similar products exploding is very high after "one and two".

The Nut O2 series has a 0.18:1 ultra short focus, covering the 9999 yuan laser TV and 3499 yuan entry-level tricolor laser intelligent projection market, while the Epson LS800 product focuses on high-end applications above 20000 yuan. In addition, 2023 is also one of the years when the engineering projection market and business conference projector industry have launched the most new ultra short focus products. Despite the continuous decline in the education projection market over the past five years, Dongfang Zhongyuan has also launched the "Laser Projection Blackboard" product, continuing to explore the application value of ultra short focus.

Or rather, the full field popularization of ultra short focus projection applications has reached a new stage: a period of technological breakthroughs, abundant supply, and diverse application scenarios. Relatively speaking, the overall market share of ultra short focus projection is still not high. The market size will not exceed two to three hundred thousand units in a year, and its overall market share in the projection industry is limited.

The main reasons for the limited penetration rate of "product supply wanting to be popularized" on the application end include: 1. competition between large screen LCD TVs and laser TVs in the home market, and pressure from large screen LCD displays and touch products in the commercial education market on ultra short focus commercial education projectors; 2. As a "high-end technology", ultra short focus projection still has a premium of "one-third of the product price" in terms of price; 3. The availability of ultra short focus products still faces bottlenecks.

The meaning of the third point is that the currently largest supply of ultra short focus products in the market is 0.23:1/0.26:1/0.33:1, etc. The focus range is still relatively long, which cannot achieve the ideal effect of projection display on standard TV cabinets. The products with projection ratios of 0.18:1 and 0.16:1 each have only one to two models - the ultra short focus is not a sufficiently short supply pattern, which limits the advantages of ultra short focus projection in many scenarios.

The price will really be high, and the short focal length has not reached the ideal state, which makes it difficult to popularize and increase the quantity of ultra short focal length. So, the biggest highlight of the industry's evaluation of the Nut O2 series is not the 0.18:1 ultra short focus, but the listing prices of 3499 and 9999 yuan - this price seems to indicate that the cost of ultra short focus is "affordable" after being shorter.

It is expected that with the demonstration and leading role of nuts, the 0.2:1 and below focal length will become one of the standard product lines for future layout of ultra short focal length conference projection and household projection. At the same time, the application of new technologies will not bring significant premiums, but will instead drive down the prices of ultra short focal length products with a focal length of 0.21:1 and above. More and better products, as well as lower prices for all ultra short focal lenses, are likely to become an industry hotspot in 2024. This trend is likely to cover all scenarios such as home use, business education, and engineering.

Further addressing the issues of "usability" and "low price" will also create the best "dual engine driving" for the "market volume" of ultra short focus products. Will 2024 be a mini boom in ultra short focus projection that covers all application scenarios? We can wait and see.

Since we are optimistic about the development of ultra short focus projection in 2023, the further rise of "anti light screens" is not a problem. Because of the use of ultra short focus and the configuration of anti light curtains, the visual contrast of image quality under lighting conditions will increase by more than two orders of magnitude. The characteristic of ultra short focus that must be matched with anti light curtains to achieve the best effect is also one of the key points that increases the application cost of such products and hinders their market popularization.

In 2024, with the demonstration of nut products at 0.18:1, the ultra short focus lens will accelerate to break through its limits and compress the price of the entire product line, which will inevitably be beneficial for the expansion of the anti light screen market. At the same time, the application of anti light curtains has more competitive significance for the development of the projection industry.

For example, in 2023, the combination of ultra short focus projectors and anti light curtains in the business education market will continue to provide innovative application scenarios. Dongfang Zhongyuan launches a "laser projection blackboard" product for education; The projection system used in conjunction with anti light curtains in the higher education market has become a powerful tool for improving contrast effects; In the business conference market, laser TV products provide the market with a healthy and comfortable choice of 100 inch large screens for eye protection.

The application of anti light curtains in the business education market is mainly to cope with the competition of large-sized LCD display products. The latter has high contrast in natural lighting environments. Through the use of anti light curtains (including short focus anti light curtains and long focus anti light curtains), the image quality effect of projection products, especially the contrast effect in lighting environments, has been unprecedentedly improved.

For example, in the engineering projection application market, anti light curtains are equally important. One reason is that many large screens in narrow spaces use ultra short focus projectors for imaging. If anti light curtains are added in value, the image quality can be greatly improved; The second is the application of engineering projectors, including the higher education market, cultural tourism market, etc., which have been challenged by small pitch LED displays. In these markets, projector applications need to further improve image quality. High quality anti light curtains and high brightness products are currently mature and cost-effective technological choices.

In summary, the anti light screen has shifted from short focus to both medium and long focus and short focus; In terms of application scenarios, it has shifted from being dominated by household laser TVs to placing equal emphasis on household, business education, and engineering; In terms of industry significance, the trend of accelerating the formation of the industry in 2023 is to focus on improving image quality and compete with LCD screens and LED direct display screens for more value. Although anti light curtains still do not dominate in total, in terms of the diversity of application supply, anti light curtains have achieved value coverage of "projection full scene space".

After completing diversity coverage on the supply side, the next step for anti light curtains is inevitably to focus on increasing quantity. This can be supported by the possibility of new growth in demand for ultra short focus projection in 2024, or by a more mature supply of anti light curtains and continuous downward cost driving.

If the COVID-19 has lasted for three years, what is the biggest change to the projection market? The answer must be the low price of the home market and smart projectors. From the end of 2019 to mid-2023, the average price of smart projectors has almost dropped from nearly 2500 yuan to nearly 1500 yuan - this is still the "average" result after the accelerated outbreak of the market above 5000 yuan.

There are many factors that lead to the low price of the smart projector market, such as the breakthrough in 1LCD projection brightness and availability upgrades, which have brought about a significant reduction in the cost of supply side mid to low-end products themselves. For example, the growth of the projector home market is tilting towards 4th -5th tier cities, bringing about a price effect of "rural surrounding cities". At the same time, this low-cost process has also been boosted by "live shopping" and "Kwai Tiktok new channel" since 2022.

This trend towards low prices reached a peak in the third quarter of 2023: According to data from Lotu Technology, the market share in the price range below 500 yuan exceeded 40% in the third quarter of 2023; The market share of models priced below 1000 yuan is over 55%; The online market share of low priced LCD technology has increased to 77.1% - this unprecedented low price trend is clearly not a "normal and healthy" market pattern.

"The consumption of the intelligent projection industry has its own immune correction effect!" Industry insiders pointed out that as we enter the fourth quarter of 2023, the intelligent projection industry's own "rectification of the extreme low-end" has begun. For example, data shows that during the 2023 Double Eleven promotion period, the sales of LCD technology accounted for 49.1% - although still higher than the market share of Double Eleven in 2022, it was significantly lower than the results of the first three quarters of this year.

The consumption of projectors is centered around the pursuit of large screen visual effects. The large screen experience inevitably requires the product to have a basic level of performance. Products with excessively low prices are often the result of impulsive and one-time experiential consumption by consumers, and often do not have the sustainability of the consumer market. Under this theoretical framework, the accelerated popularity of low-end products over the past three years will inevitably bring a series of "problems":

For example, leaving a negative impression on some consumers that projection is deceiving, ultra-low end users quickly give up their choice of projection after their first purchase, some ultra-low end users upgrade to mid-range quality product users, and so on—— Whether it's the ultra-low end market that is completely not based on experience quality, or the new channel live streaming consumption, they are all buildings on the quicksand: the trend of ultra-low end and low-priced will inevitably reverse after reaching its peak. Based on current data, it is highly likely that the third quarter of 2023 will be the turning point.

Meanwhile, since the second half of 2023, mainstream brands in the industry have become more aware of the importance of "quality guidance" for industry development. The adoption of a series of measures, including price reductions and concessions for quality oriented products, will also subjectively accelerate the end of the trend of ultra-low prices. The leading manufacturers have formed a consensus of "working together to establish a quality price ratio market" and have begun to

If the trend of continuous increase in the proportion of ultra-low price intelligent projection in 2024 stops and reverses, it will bring about an upgrade of the entire intelligent projection consumption pattern. The core trend of this change is that the market structure is shifting from a pyramid shaped structure with the largest bottom to an olive shaped structure with the highest proportion at the waist.

From the industry data of 2023, it can be seen that since the second half of the year, especially since the fourth quarter, the proportion of low-end low-priced products has shown a clear downward trend; The trend of LCD technology pursuing higher technical performance and experience is obvious; 3. DLP products will lower the price of higher performance products, and efforts to improve the supply scale and quality of mid to low-end products are evident.

In addition, more importantly, the total consumption of smart projectors in China will decline in 2023. Among them, the declining portion is mainly focused on low-end products. The uncertainty of income growth, lack of consumer confidence, and the fatigue brought about by the normalization of promotions, as well as the end of the trend of trying out new products in the homestead economy, have all brought about more rational consumption choices - some ultra-low end users have upgraded to the mid to high end, and some ultra-low end users have exited the demand market, driving a transformation in the consumption pattern.

Industry analysis suggests that the main battlefield for smart projector consumption in 2024 will be between 1000 and 3000 yuan. This is not only the center of the 1LCD upgrade battle, but also the center of the DLP product concession battle. This will promote the "size" of this medium-sized market, especially the continuous increase in market structural proportion, and provide support for the "middle belly" of forming an olive shaped intelligent projection consumption structure.

Of course, it is unlikely to expect to build an "intelligent projection consumer olive shaped market" in just one year by 2024. Although the market with a price range of 1000-3000 yuan is facing an increase and the market with a price range of below 1000 yuan is facing a decrease this year, which is conducive to the overall upgrading of the market consumption structure, after all, the proportion of the market with a price range of below 1000 yuan has been between 40-60% for a long time in the past decade, and it will inevitably take longer to digest this "pyramid bottom" as a whole.

However, the trend of "quality to price ratio, large screen quality, rational consumption, and olive shaped consumption structure" is constantly increasing, the consensus of enterprises is very clear, and industry actions are also ongoing. In 2024, the industry will accelerate towards a new era and cycle, and it is inevitable that the embryonic form of industry consumption structure will become clearer in the future.

Postscript: 2024 is the second year that the domestic projection industry's household consumption market has entered a stock period, and it is also a year when the industry market is facing further upgrading competition pressure. It is also a year when the global macro consumption pattern is still fluctuating in the post epidemic low valley. It will also be a key year for the overall projector products, especially national brands, to accelerate the transformation and upgrading of endogenous power. The changes in industry trends, product supply, and consumer demand in 2024 are bound to be at a peak. The prediction of industry trends in 2024 is just a starting point for this article. More exciting changes in industries require industry colleagues to practice and jointly build a better future for the rise of industries.